Edit / Clarification: Grades are NOT the only metric. But they MATTER.
I've been noticing a lot of posts recently with people asking about their chances at recruiting if they have weak grades. I often hear the message that grades are not everything, that soft skills are important too. While it's true that I don't want to work with a robot (airplane test etc.), the thing I care most about is my potential colleague's ability to do the job. If I could only pick a single factor to evaluate a potential junior banker on (in terms of a "paper" application - no interview), I would choose grades.
I've heard some people say that grades aren't always well correlated with performance. I agree. But I would counter that if you could pick one other metric that you think is better what would it be?
A more traditional school of thought would suggest that grades are a proxy for work ethic, ability to learn and base level knowledge / intelligence which are important factors of success in a junior banker's career.
Unlike stocks, for people past behaviour is often a good proxy for future behaviour. I'm very hesitant to provide a recommendation for someone who has weak grades.
Most banks have a cut-off that isn't insurmountable. I'm not too far from it. I highly respect people with grades well in excess of the cut-off because you can often tell that they earned it (something I have not done, could not have done and therefore value greatly). I have usually found that I enjoy working with these ambitious individuals.
Would love to hear any other opinions.